Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Soft Commodities warming up to break out of ranges?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Soybeans seems to be range bound between $1.180 and $1.300/bsh. On the bigger picture on weekly chart however, Soybeans is in a down trend that can only be reversed with a break above 1.300. RSI is indicating bearish sentiment. If Soybeans break below the support at around 1.180 there is no real support before around 1.035 level i.e. around the 200 weekly SMA.
Wheat is short term in a down trend currently testing the medium term rising trend line.
A break below $768/bsh could fuel a sell-off down to around $700.
On weekly chart Wheat has formed a rising wedge like pattern with a peak and reversal in the form of a Doji Evening pattern. Despite not text book perfect the lower rising trend line and possible break there of could be crucial for Wheat bulls.
RSI is showing divergence which underlines the picture om imbalance i.e. the uptrend is long in its teeth.
A break below the rising lower trend line is likely to further fuel the selling down to $700-677.
Corn is trading in a more and more narrow range forming an Ascending like triangle (You could argue it is an slow rising wedge). Conclusion would be the same, however. A bearish break out is likely to lead to a drop to around $550 support. A close below 547 next support is at around $500.
The divergence on RSI indicates the pressure is to the down side. However, if Corn bulls manage to lift the Future price above $594 it could trigger a lot of stops shooting the price higher towards $700.
Coffee has been on the rise for three Quarters by now. Robusta coffee is trading close to decade highs in a narrow steep rising channel. RSI Divergence is however, growing indicating the uptrend could be ripe for a correction. A break below $2.18 could signal the end of the uptrend and a larger correction. A scenario where Robusta is trading below $2.18 will take the commodity below 55 SMA for the first time in months. If that scenario plays out we could see a sell-off down to around $1.90-1.80 with support at around 2.1
RSI Divergence explained: When an indicator such as RSI is displaying lower peaks while the underlying price is still making new highs. It is a sign of imbalance in the market, the strength of the trend is weakening. It could be an indicating of an ending of a trend. However, imbalances in financial markets can go on for quite some time. To cancel Divergence out RSI must either 1. Make a new high simultaneously with the price or 2. Close below 40 threshold.
Same can be observed in bear market just here market makes a new low but Indicator doesn’t.
Same can be observed in bear market just here market makes a new low but Indicator doesn’t.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)