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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Gasoline leading Oil higher? Mixed picture on Gas
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Brent Crude and WTI oil futures on the verge of breaking out Bullish of short term falling trend line. Gasoline might be leading Oil higher. Dutch TFF Gas building higher base and could be ready for uptrend whereas Henry Hub Gas is recording new highs and could continue.
At the time of writing Brent Crude Oil is trading above short term falling trend line. If Brent closes the day above $110.30 correction has ended and uptrend is resumed. Big test will then be $114.85.
To demolish this likely Bullish picture a daily close below 103.15 is needed. If that scenario plays out key support at around 96.75 is likely to be tested.
WTI Crude oil is (of course) showing similar pattern; close to break bullish out of falling trend line. A daily close above $108 would confirm the break out and indicate uptrend to resume. Further confirmation if breaking above 109.81. Strong resistance at 116.40
Gasoline could be the Canary in the coal mine for Oil. Gasoline confirmed uptrend last week when closing above $344.65. With today’s break away gap higher the 0.618 retracement has been broken after four days of attempt.
RSI is above 60 threshold i.e. showing positive sentiment and with no divergence Gasoline is likely to test March high at around 389. However, the uptrend seems strong new highs at around
For Gasoline to reverse the uptrend a daily close below 313 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a break below 334.
Is Dutch TTF Gas building a short term uptrend? With a higher low 2nd May it seems that way. IF RSI has a daily close above 60 threshold the indication for a Bull move is high. If Dutch Gas trades above the 55 daily SMA Bollinger bands are likely to expand indicating a new uptrend could be unfolding.
A daily close below €96 will reverse and demolish possible bullish picture
Henry Hub Gas continue its uptrend. RSI divergence seems to be building up however, and this could be last exhaustive move higher possibly to around 8.70 which is both the 1.7764 projection of the Autumn correction and the 1.382 projection of the recent correction in April.
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