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Energy Technical Update - Oil prices turning bearish. Gasoline gives relief to commuters
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Brent and WTI Crude oil turning bearish testing rising trend lines. Gasoline sell off will give some relief to car drivers. Henry Hub gas price collapses while Dutch gas is trading higher testing key resistance levels
Brent Crude oil is testing lower rising trend line and 100 SMA. Technically it is in a short term down trend. (Lower highs and lower lows) However, RSI needs to close the day below 40 to confirm that picture.
If Brent closes below the trend line, there is minor support at around $101.30 and strong key support at 96.75. To reverse the short-term bear trend and for long term bull trend too resume a close above 121.25 is needed.
At the time of writing WTI Crude oil is trading below rising trend line testing the 0.618 retracement and RSI is below 40 ie. Showing negative sentiment.
If that is also the picture at the end of the day down trend is confirmed. Support at around at the 0.764 retracement at $100.2 and at 98.20. Key strong support at 92.90.
To reverse the bearish trend a close above 118.97 is needed.
Gasoline has broken bearish out of rising channel establishing a down trend currently testing 0.50 retracement and the 55 SMA. If Gasoline closes below the medium-term rising trend line a minor support at around $350 and 330.
Several times Dutch TTF Gas has failed its attempt to close above strong key resistance at $127.50. Another attempt is seen this morning. If Dutch Gas closes above, we could see a test of last weeks peak around 149. IF it fails once again to close above resistance at 127.50, we could see a set back to around 111. A close below 111 is likely to set Dutch gas back below 100
Henry Hub Gas has led the down trend in Energy markets. Close to test key support at around $6.40. A minor bounce should be expected from here. A close below could lead to continued sell off down to support around 5.52. To neutralise the down trend a close above 8.03 is needed
Carbon Emission is trading in a tighter and tighter sideways range forming a Symmetrical like triangle pattern. AS close outside of the trend lines is needed for direction.
Upside breakout we could see Emission at 92.75 possibly 98.50
A bearish breakout there is support at 75.85.
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