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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Technical Update - After massive sell offs in Grains it could be rebound time
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Wheat, Soybeans and Corn have been hit with massive selling the past week. All back to pre-Ukraine war levels. Oversold indicator suggest we could see a nice rebound. But selling pressure can quickly resume
Wheat is back to pre-Ukraine war level. All support levels have been taken out and Wheat is now hovering around 820 which was top of the range area it was trading a couple of months prior to the war.
Wheat can still drop further as there is no support before around 740. However, Wheat is oversold and RSI has not seen values this low since 2019. RSI has formed a falling wedge like pattern and if it breaks bullish out of this we could see a strong rebound to around 900-926.
Soybeans collapsed after the key support at 1,579 was broke last week. The price has almost moved the same length as the range Soybeans was trading March to June. Illustrated by the two arrows.
It seems to bounce from the upper support in the consolidation area 1,429-1,349. A bounce that could take Soybeans up to 200 Simple Moving Average around 1,485, possibly up to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at around 1,522
RSI is bearish and despite being oversold Soybeans can drop further. If it takes out yesterdays low we could see Soybeans below 1,400.
Corn has collapsed down to the January lows around 585. RSI showing massive oversold and a rebound is likely. A rebound that could take Corn to around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and around the 200 SMA. However, if Corn is being pushed below 580 we could see it drop to around 550.
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