Technical Update - Precious metals plus Copper

Technical Update - Precious metals plus Copper

Commodities 5 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Gold and Silver reversing bearish correction resuming medium term uptrend. Gold longer term scenario outlined in Q2 Outlook intact. Platinum and Palladium seem to have found support but struggle to get upside momentum. Copper range bound.


Gold XAUUSD has resumed uptrend broken above $1,967. Support at 1,916 proved to be too strong. RSI moving back above 60 threshold with no Divergence supports the bullish outlook. Bollinger bands expanding indicating Gold is in early stage of the uptrend.
Minor resistance at $2,000.

Source: Saxo Group

The longer term scenario on Gold expressed in our Quarterly Outlook is still intact . Read it here: https://www.home.saxo/insights

Extract: Gold has formed what looks like a cup and handle pattern: B is the bottom of the cup and C is the handle.
The cup and handle pattern is confirmed if gold performs a daily close above peak A at $2,078. If this scenario plays out, we can then calculate possible targets. As a minimum gold should reach 1.618 projection of the handle height—in other words, a price target of around $2,328. Based on the full cup the price could potentially reach 1,618 projection of the distance between A and C—around $2,578. If demand deteriorates and gold breaks below $1,673 (the bottom of the handle), this cup and handle scenario is busted and a downtrend will unfold towards $1,500-1,350.
However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing no divergence and back above the 60 threshold, the bullish picture is supported.


Source: Saxo Group

Silver XAGUSD spot has resumed uptrend almost similar to Gold. Silver formed a Pennant like corrective pattern with strong support around $24.00. Now broken out bullish, RSI back above 60 with no divergence and Bollinger bands expanding. Resistance at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and 24th March peak around 25.85. It is not as strong resistance i.e. likely to be taken out. March peak around 27 is not unlikely to be tested.

 

Source: Saxo Group

XAUXAG Gold/Silver spot ratio keeps trading in months long symmetrical triangle pattern.

Source: Saxo Group

Platinum XPTUSD spot seems to have found support around the 0.764 retracement level around $950-960. A daily close below $945 is likely to result in December lows around 900 is to be tested.
55, 100 and 200 SMA’s are all declining providing overhead resistance. Platinum could be stuck in a range between 950 and 1,025 for some time. A close above short term falling trend line could indicate an attempt to break above 200 SMA.

Source: Saxo Group

Palladium seems to have found support around 100 and 200 SMA’s reversing March bear corrective move. A Daily close above $2,639 will confirm uptrend and a push towards peak around 3,425. A Daily close below 2,166 bear trend resumes.

 

Source: Saxo Group

Copper seems range bound between 460 and 482. A break out of this range is need ed for direction. RSI is still showing bullish sentiment indication break out is likely to be up.

Source: Saxo Group

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992