Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - US 10 years Yields. Breaking key resistance, set for higher levels
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Monthly chart shows the Future dipped just below the key strong support at 114 21/32. A close below is needed for selling pressure to resume. If the US T-Note future closes below 114 20/32 next support is around 111 and strong support at 104.
RSI with a current value of 18.40, has not been this low since January 2000 showing massive oversold scenario. However, it should be noted that RSI can still drop further
The sell-off in the Treasury future means that the yields propelled higher above 3.4%. Minor correction should be expected but trend is up
Zooming out looking at the longer-term picture Yields have broken above 2018 peak at 3.25%. With just minor resistance around 4% US 10 Treasury yields could go to 4.38% in Q3 but no strong resistance until around 5.25% between 1.618 and 1.764 projection from the 2018-2020 down trend.
If that level is reached Yields will be back at pre-Financial crisis level
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