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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Gold could test all-time high. Silver and Copper finding support, strong rebound in the cards
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
- Gold resuming bullish trend with potential to 2,500
- Silver rebounding from supports. USD30 is key resistance
- Copper finding support just above 400. Will it rebound or resume downtrend?
Gold
After dipping below the 0.618 retracement at 2,353 (red Fibonacci levels) and below the 55 daily moving average Gold has bounced and now seems to be resuming bullish trend.
A daily close above the resistance and 0.618 retracement at around 2,434 will confirm new uptrend.
An RSI close back above 60 threshold will further support that bullish picture
If that scenario is playing out Gold is likely to test previous peak at around 2,484 but will have potential to higher levels. A push to the 1.382 projection at 2,554 would be in the cards
A daily close below 2,353 will demolish and reverse the bullish picture
Silver has tested the 0.786 retracement and support at 27.40 a couple of times and now seems to be rebounding.
Short-term a rebound to the 0.382 retracement at 29 is likely. A break above 29.45 is likely to further fuel the rebound up to the 0.618 retracement at USD 30.
A daily close above 30 and Silver will confirm new bullish trend.
If the strength indicator TRIS is closing back above the 60 threshold it will further confirm bullish trend. First indication of that bullish scenario to play out would be RSI closing above its falling (blue) trendline
A close below 27.30 bearish trend will resume with downside potential to around 26
Copper could be set for a bounce from the consolidation area just above the 400 level.
However, the RSI showing negative sentiment but not showing any divergence indicating we could see a push lower in Copper. However, if Copper is closing above 413.10 and RSI is closing above its falling trendline (blue) and closes above the 40 threshold there is strong indication of Copper bounce to the 0.382 retracement at 428.70.
A daily close above 429 could further push Copper to the 0.618 retracement at 444.50
A break below 403.25 is likely to push Copper below 400 to test the support at around 399.65. Next support below that level is around 383.40.
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