Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Gold and Silver set for higher levels but correction looming. Ratio correction could be over
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Gold range bound after reaching 2K but points to much higher levels. Silver in steep trend closing in on strong resistance.
Gold/Silver ratio in big correction that could soon be over.
Gold seems range bound between 1,934 and 2,010 and a break out is needed for direction. If breaking out to the downside it is likely merely just be a correction down to 0.618 retracement at 1,883 before uptrend resumes.
If breaking out to the upside there is short-term potential to previous highs around 2,078 which is also the 1.764 projection of the last larger correction.
Medium-term there is also RSI divergence but Gold trend is up, and if weekly RSI breaks above its falling trendline the divergence is likely to be cancelled (traded out) and Gold set for higher levels.
Monthly chart i.e., medium- to longer term: No RSI divergence and is still showing positive sentiment and if RSI closes back above 60 threshold it is a strong indication we will see much higher prices in gold.
If Gold closes above 2,075 there is potential to 2,245 – 2,352.
For Gold to demolish and reverse this scenario a close below 1,800.
Gold is above the Ichimoku Cloud (shaded area) on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode.
Silver in a steep rising trend with no RSI divergence suggesting Silver is to trade higher. A test of February peak at around 24.63 is likely before a correction.
Weekly RSI is positive and about to break back above 60 indicating higher Silver prices. A move to the strong resistance area 25.85-26.45 is in the cards. The latter level is also the 1.382 projection of the Q1 2023 correction. Positive weekly RSI and MACD about to turn bullish supports the Bullish Silver picture.
However, the bullish move could be a bit slow or sluggish, the 55 and 100 weekly MA’s are still declining whereas the 21 and the 200 MA’s are rising which is an indication of and underlying indecisive sentiment.
However, to reverse this bullish trend a close above 19.90 is needed.
Medium- to longer term. If Silver closes above 24.65 uptrend has been confirmed and previous peaks around 30 is likely to be tested. Resistance at around 26.95.
Silver is above the Cloud on both Daily and Weekly i.e., in a Bullish mode.
Gold/Silver ratio broke below its rising trendline after reaching 0.786 retracement at 91.80. The current decline could drop to the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 maybe dipping down to touch the support at around 80.61 before a rebound.
Medium-term. Weekly RSI still showing positive sentiment (needs to close below 40 threshold to reverse to negative) so if Silver bounces from the 0.618 retracement at 81.12 to resume uptrend Silver could be set for a test of the strong resistance at around 96.
But if Silver continues below 81 to close a week below 79 Silver is likely to test key strong support at around 74.57.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)