Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Metals are sending bullish signals for 2024: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Gold slowly approaching 2,070 but could make new all-time highs in 2024.
Silver gathering strength to test key resistance around 26. Could Silver break the resistance and reach 30 in 2024?
Platinum crawling higher towards 1K short-term, but could move to 1,150 in first half of 2024
Palladium bouncing from decade lows. Indicating bullish trend in 2024. Could reach 1,600
Copper could break the strong key 400 level Q1 2024
Gold XAUUSD is eyeing the 0.618 retracement and all-time high close at around 2,072.
The RSI indicator is showing positive sentiment and no divergence. A new daily close above 60 will further underline the bullish scenario for Gold.
A daily close above 2,072 is likely to push Gold to new highs.
Medium-term Gold is also in an uptrend. A close above 2,072 could push the precious metal to the 1.382 projection at 2,193 possibly to the 1.618 projection at 2,231
A close below 1,973 will demolish the bullish picture and reverse the uptrend Silver XAGUSD is likely to be testing the 0.618 retracement at 24.63 shortly. A close around that level is likely to push the daily RSI to close above 60 threshold thus in positive sentiment.
If that scenario plays out Silver is likely to push higher towards 26.
Medium-term the price area 25.85-26.50 is a strong resistance area. An area that is likely to be test in Q1 2024. A close above 26.50 could fuel a rally towards previous peaks around 30
Weekly RSI is showing positive sentiment but has struggled for momentum . another weekly close above 60 is likely to initiate the next rally higher.
A close below 22.50 will demolish the bullish scenario Platinum XPTUSD following the break of key resistance at around 952.30 Platinum is slowly crawling higher towards the 1K level. RSI above 60 threshold is supporting the bullish trend.
The 55 DMA is close to be breaking above the 100 DMA. They are both rising thus forming a Gold Cross further underlining the bullish picture.
Medium-term a weekly close above 988 will confirm bullish trend. A close above 988 will most likely establish RSI above 60 thereby showing positive sentiment with Platinum potential to around 1,150
To reverse the bullish picture a close below 889 is needed
Palladium is approaching its 200 DMA, eyeing 1,302 strong resistance level which could be reached within a week or two. RSI positive sentiment is supporting the short-term bullish picture
Medium-term Last week Palladium broke bullish out of its falling wedge like pattern and above the shorter upper falling trend line (blue falling line). The break out occurred after RSI was been showing divergence strongly indicating downtrend exhaustion.
A bullish move to strong resistance at around 1,346 seems likely. The weekly 55 DMA will add to the resistance
A close above could pave the way to 1,600-1,650 area.
Copper is testing early December peak at around 939.30 attempting to move to key strong resistance around 401.60 but seems to be struggling.
Medium-term Copper is struggling to break above the declining 100 weekly Moving Average despite getting support from the 55 and 200 weekly Moving Averages both rising.
However, Copper seems to be closing the week above the Cloud and if RSI can do a weekly close above 60 the sentiment has been confirmed to being positive also on medium-term.
Next couple of weeks could be decisive for this scenario to play out.
A close above 401.60 could fuel a rally higher in the new year towards 450 area with strong resistance around 419.50
Author is holding a long position in Gold
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)