Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Gold and Silver have both bounced from 0.786 Fibo retracement thus resuming uptrends.
Gold could climb to 2,070-2,100.
Silver eyeing 25,50-26,00
Platinum on the verge to confirming bullish trend. 952.30 is key
Gold XAUUSD bounced off the 0.786 retracement at 1,975 resuming uptrend supported by RSI bouncing from above the 40 threshold
As highlighted in previous Technical Update and the Daily Technical Update video’s; there is no divergence on RIS suggesting likely new higher XAUUSD levels
Currently testing the lower rising trendline and the 0.382 retracement at 2,034 Gold could experience a minor setback before moving higher. A move to the 0.618 retracement at around 2,071 is in the cards, possibly up to 2,100
The bullish picture is supported by all daily Moving Averages are rising, 55 DMA has performed a Gold Cross on both the 100 and the 200 Moving Average underlining the underlying bullish trend
Silver XAGUSD sell-off pushed the precious metal below the 0.786 retracement at 22.75 but never to close below.
Despite RSI did close below 40 threshold the strong rebound yesterday has changed the picture.
Silver is back above the 0.382 retracement likely to reach 0.618 retracement at 24.62 shortly.
An RSI close back above 60 threshold will further confirm bullish picture where Sivler an move back to 25.50-26 levels.
To demolish this bullish scenario a break back below 22.50 Platinum XPTUSD is close to be testing the key resistance at around 952.30. A close above and Platinum has confirmed and uptrend. A close above 952.30 will also very likely push RSI to close above 60 threshold thus further confirming uptrend.
A bullish move to 990-1,000 is in the cards 2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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