Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Gold and Silver ripe for a correction
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Gold and Silver have formed top and reversal patterns. A correction seems likely to unfold over next few days
Gold ripe for a correction. Gold has formed a Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle. Gold future shows identical pattern.
With the divergence on RSI (RSI is declining when asset price has been rising) the precious metal is ripe for a correction.
A correction should take Gold down to the 0.382 retracement at 19,55 but could drop to the 0.618 retracement at 1,897. However, 55 and 100 daily Moving Averages are coming up around that level providing some support.
Minor support at around 1,981. If taken out a short-term down trend has been confirmed.
If Gold can stay above the bottom of the Cloud bull trend is likely to resume after a correction.
For Gold to reverse this bearish correction scenario a close above the 2,050 is needed.
Gold has run out of steam short of all-time high and with divergence on Weekly RSI a correction should be expected.
Silver has also formed Bearish Engulfing candle indicating a top and reversal. Contrary to Gold there is no divergence on RSI suggesting Silver is likely to resume uptrend after a minor correction.
Nevertheless, a correction can take Silver down to the 0.382 retracement at around 23.70. If closing below Silver could dip to test 23.00 where the 100 and 55 daily Moving Averages are coming up providing support. However, a dip down to strong support at around 22.25 should not be ruled out.
To demolish and reverse this bearish correction scenario a close above 23.10 is needed.
Weekly chart Silver was rejected at the strong resistance area 25.85-26.46. Medium-term trend is still up but a correction is likely. Strong support at around 22.25 which is both the 0.618 retracement and the top of the Cloud.
Gold/Silver ratio is bouncing from support at around 79.00 after dipping down to the 0.786 retracement at 78.36 forming a bottom and reversal pattern.
A rebound should have energy to take Gold/Silver to the 0.382 retracement at 83.50 but a move up to 85 level where the 200 and 55 Moving Averages are providing resistance.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)