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Technical Update - Mixed technical picture in Grains: Wheat, Soybeans, Corn and London Cocoa
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Wheat failing to take out resistance but likely to have another go
Soybeans facing correction, could even reverse to down trend
Corn direction still undecided
London Cocoa at decades highs but could move higher in an exhaustive move
Wheat (Dec. 2023) Despite a higher close Wheat failed to close above June peak at 784.25. RSI is showing divergence indicating a correction is likely. A correction that could take the Wheat future down to the 0.618 retracement at around 700.
However, Wheat could resume uptrend before reaching that level as both the 55 and the 100 daily Moving Averages are providing support and both are rising.
If Wheat should manage to close above 784.25 and RSI closes above its falling trendline Wheat is likely to move higher to around 820.
Soybeans Nov. 2023) is struggling to break strong resistance around 1,428, and with the RSI divergence Soybeans is likely to be hit by a correction.
A correction could take Soybeans down tot eh 0.382 retracement and support at around 1,319 before uptrend could resume. A close below 1,319 could send Soybeans even lower to around 1,256 -1,246 i.e., around the 0.618 retracement level.
Bearish break of lower rising trendline will be first warning signal that a correction is unfolding
If Soybeans manages to break above 1,428 previous high at around 1,448 is likely to be tested
Corn (DEC. 2023) Following its heavy selling end June Corn has bounced to the 0.618 retracement few cents below the 200 Moving Average.
A minor 0.382 set back down to around 537 could be seen before Corn could have another attempt higher.
If closing below 531 Corn will have resumed downtrend with a likely move to test July lows around 481.
A close above 573 is likely to fuel a rally towards June peak at around 630 possibly higher.
London Cocoa (Dec.2023) is moving higher after a minor correction. However, this could be last exhaustive move as there is massive RSI divergence.
However, Cocoa could extend uptrend to 1.618 Projection of the latest correction at 2,755. But an overshooting higher above 2,800 should not be ruled out despite it trading at levels not seen since 2010.
Trend is still up despite massive divergence and to reverse the trend a close below 2,400 is needed. A close below 2,519 could be first indication of uptrend has exhausted
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