Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Gold XAUUSD has now several times been testing the key strong support at 2,326 and dipped down to the 0.786 retracement at 2,314 on one occasion. If closing below 2,314, a swift sell-off down to support at around 2,277 is likely. If taking out that support, there is further downside potential to 2,222–2,195.
The strength indicator RSI is still in positive sentiment but has been showing divergence for quite some time, indicating uptrend exhaustion for gold and a possible correction.
For gold to resume uptrend, a daily close above 2,365 is required.
Double top pattern? One can argue that gold is forming a double top pattern, an ugly pattern, where the first peak is not that distinct and significantly lower than the second top, hurting potential performance. A daily close below 2,277 is required for confirmation.
Silver XAGUSD has formed a double top pattern.
Potential downside target: As a rule of thumb, the price should come back down to the base prior to the build-up, i.e., at around 26. However, the target performance often reaches less than that. Measuring the distance from the top to the valley of the double top pattern and subtracting that from the breakout price, i.e., the valley, indicates a downside potential to 27.57, as indicated by the two vertical arrows.
However, a sell-off could be cut even more short; the 0.618 retracement of the April to May uptrend is at 28.50. Almost exactly the same price as the 1.618 projection of the double top pattern (28.52).
If silver is closing back above the right top, i.e., above 32.30, the uptrend is likely to resume, and the pattern is busted. If closing back above the valley, i.e., back above 30.05, the bearish scenario is busted.
Platinum XPTUSD got hit by heavy selling after reaching the 0.618 retracement at 1,066 and is currently trading around the support area 1,015–1,000.
If closing below 1,015, further selling could be seen down to the 0.618 retracement at 974.50. The 55 daily moving average is adding to the support.
If closing back above 1,015, the uptrend is likely to resume. The RSI is still showing positive sentiment with no divergence, indicating platinum is likely to trade higher after a correction.
However, if RSI is closing below 40, that potential bullish scenario is cancelled.
Copper is breaking below the 0.618 retracement at 460.80 and seems destined to drop lower to the stronger support at around 446.
If RSI, which is still showing positive sentiment but also divergence, is closing below the 40 threshold, the bearish move is likely to continue.
A daily close below 446 could fuel further selling pressure down to the 0.618 retracement at 424.40.
If closing back above 470, copper is likely to resume uptrend
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Chief Investment Strategist
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Quarterly Outlook
Head of Commodity Strategy
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)