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Technical Update - Crude oil struggling for upside momentum. Henry Hub gas uptrend exhaustion? Dutch gas at key support
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
WTI Crude oil spiked Friday higher above its upper falling trend line only to be rejected at the 55 declining Moving Average and at the 0.786 retracement to close just around the falling trendline.
WTI needs to close above 76.18 to establish a bullish trend. However, strong resistance at around 79.77
A close below its lower rising trendline downtrend is resuming for WTI, with potential to 67 level
Brent Crude oil is drawing almost similar technical picture as WTI. Reject at the 0.786 retracement and the 55 Moving Average, now back below its upper falling trendline
RSI forming symmetrical triangle where break out direction will indicate the trend for Brent oil.
A bullish break out there is minor resistance at 81.72 and stronger resistance at around 84.76
A bearish break out Brent is likely to resume downtrend towards 72.50
Henry Hub gas is in a bullish trend but now struggling to close above the 0.786 retracement at 3.34
A third attempt should not be ruled out and if closing above November 2023 peak and strong resistance at 3.64 is likely to be tested.If sliding back to close below 2.94 the bullish picture is likely to be reversed with potential down to the 0.618 retracement at 2.67
Dutch TTF Gas is not benefitting from the cold weather in Northern Europe. A close below EUR30 next support at 26.80 and 22.85
For Dutch gas to getting any upside potential a bullish break of its upper falling trendline is needed. If that occurs a move to 37.50 could be seenHowever, RSI is in negative sentiment indicating likely lower gas prices below EUR30
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