Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
WTI Crude oil yesterday closed just below January peak at 79.29 and today is testing the key resistance at around 79.77. A close above is likely to push the oil future to the 1.382 projection and resistance at around 82.56.
Higher lows, as illustrated by the lower rising trendline, and the RSI is showing positive sentiment are supporting the bullish.
However, WTI has failed to push higher from around current levels quite a few times and it could also be a struggle this time around.
WTI could see a setback down to around 77.50-76.25 before having another go at the resistance level.
A break below 75.54 the lower rising trendline is likely to be tested.
Dutch TTF Gas is close to be testing the May 2023 trough at around 22.85. A rebound could be seen from here. However, with no divergence on th4e RSI indicator Dutch gas can trade lower.
If Dutch Gas is seeing a rebound it is likely to be minor with resistance at around 26.50
Henry Hub Natural Gas seems to be finding bids just above 2020 trough at around 1.434. If today Tuesday 20th February is closing above 1.611 a bullish Engulfing like candle has been drawn indicant a bottom and reversal
That could indicate a short rebound to 0.618 retracement of the last leg down at 1.88 possibly up to the 1.97 level
The trend is and would still be down however, and will remain so on the short-term until a close above 2.17
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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