Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Oil pushing for previous all time highs?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Brent oil is trading within the consolidation area from 10 years ago prior to the collapse in 2015.
Some resistance around $115.76 and $126/brl .
The energy from the Collapse in Brent oil prices back in 2020 gives us 1.764 Fibonacci projection price at $114.36 which is roughly where the possible fifth wave extension is - $116.68 i.e. same length as the third wave. So is this the fifth exhaustive wave higher ?
Normally third wave is the longest but for commodities longest wave is often the fifth. Most likely due to the panic that can arise from rising prices in a commodity everybody needs. If this is the fifth wave and if it will become longer than the third, which currently looks likely, we could see it extend to $126 maybe even $136. However, $126 is a strong resistance level.
WTI crude oil is testing resistance at around $110/brl. If we see a daily close/settlement above there is some resistance around $114.85.
The energy from the Collapse in WTI prices back in 2020 gives us 1.764 Fibonacci projection level almost spot on previous all time highs at $147.26. 1.618 projection at 131.14 could offer some resistance.
For this very bullish scenario to be put on neutral a drop below $95.30 is needed. Currently no divergence on RSI and MACD indicating higher levels.
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