Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as legal tender, being the first country to do so, and other countries are following with a positive stand towards the adoption of cryptocurrencies. On the technology side, Cardano launched its highly anticipated smart contracts yesterday.
Bitcoin is now legal tender in El Salvador
As the first country in the world, El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender last week. This means Bitcoin serves as an official currency of El Salvador alongside the US dollar. Following the implementation of Bitcoin as legal tender, El Salvador made three Bitcoin purchases counting a total of 550 Bitcoins. El Salvador launched its own Bitcoin wallet called “Chivo”, through which every Salvadoran living in the country can get $30 in Bitcoin to increase the adoption of the country’s new legal tender. Businesses in the country are required to receive Bitcoin as payment, and thus companies like Starbucks, Pizza Hut, and McDonald’s have started to accept Bitcoin as payment in El Salvador.
The implementation as legal tender has not run smoothly. Last week, a notable amount of citizens went to the street to protest against the adoption of Bitcoin due to the uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency, succeeding a troubling launch of “Chivo”, as the wallet was first unable to download, and afterward, citizens faced issues when trying to execute transfers. In the wake of the new law, El Salvador saw its bonds with near-term maturities yielding more than bonds with long-term maturities, demonstrating that investors perceive the country’s short-term debt as riskier than its long-term debt.
Will others follow El Salvador?
Following El Salvador, numerous other countries were positive last week about cryptocurrencies. The day after El Salvador, Panama introduced a bill to regulate cryptocurrencies, including the freedom to use cryptocurrencies by recognizing it as an alternative global payment method. The bill, however, will not demand businesses to accept specific cryptocurrencies as payment. From presently existing in a legal gray zone in Ukraine, the crypto-market is likely about to being regulated and legalized in the country, as the Ukrainian Parliament last week voted to accept a law about cryptocurrencies. Before going into effect, the law solely needs to be signed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This comes after the President tried to attract crypto – and blockchain companies to the country in an official visit to San Francisco last month. Only time will tell whether other countries will follow the lead of El Salvador to make Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies legal tender, and presently no country has publicly stated its intention to do so. Based on El Salvador’s starting trouble, it may keep countries more careful.
Cardano has launched smart contracts
The third-largest cryptocurrency measured on market capitalization Cardano has launched its highly anticipated smart contracts through an update known as Alonzo. The update was implemented yesterday the 12th of September and has been anticipated more or less since the launch of Cardano in September 2017. The update has been the main reason behind Cardano’s surge the past month sending the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization to an all-time high of $95bn at the beginning of this month. Smart contracts effectively mean developers can write protocols on the network such as decentralized trading - and lending protocols. In particular protocols like this have contributed to the surge in cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana the past year, emphasizing the importance of Cardano supporting smart contracts. Though, the most decisive challenge still lays ahead of Cardano, as the cryptocurrency now needs to build a large ecosystem attracting users to the network to keep its relevance going forward. For instance, Cardano has been recognized by crypto-influential people as the “ghost chain” due to its lack of an ecosystem. Now, it is time for Cardano to prove its worth by expanding its ecosystem significantly.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)