Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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A nervous high in the S&P 500
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Last week, the S&P 500 index broke bearish out of a what looked like a Rising Wedge formation (dashed line) but a pullback this week brought the index back above the lower trendline.
At the same time, the benchmark US equities index has closed the gap from August 10, thereby cancelling the bearish picture--- at least for now.
Despite the new intraday all-time high, however, there are a few technical indicators displaying warning signs.
• Bulls were not strong enough to keep Index to an all-time high close
• RSI has been falling the past two weeks, showing massive divergence.
• Volume has been falling both overall since end July and the past week. It did pick up a bit yesterday, but it was a day where sellers were in control.
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 Future points to a lower opening today so we could potentially see a double-top pattern form; it would take a close below 2,800 for confirmation, though, and it admittedly not the most perfect double-top.
Just as the 2,800 level was key resistance since March, it is now key support.
Look out for the RSI... will it break bullish out of the channel or get rejected at the upper falling line? A bullish breakout could lead the index to test 2,900 where a rejection at the falling trendline could lead to a test of the 2,800 support
Ultimately, technical analysis of the S&P 500 reveals something of a muddy picture. The trend is up, but it's not supported by strength or volume.
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