Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 uptrend seems to be weakening. Will we see a correction?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
DAX closed above key resistance at 13,761. Trading around the 0.618 retracement and just below falling (black) trendline which will act as a resistance. If closing above DAX is likely to jump to test the 0.7645 retracement at 14,162 and possibly also the 200 (red) SMA.
The trend is still up. However, DAX is forming what looks like at rising wedge like pattern. If DAX breaks bearish out of the wedge i.e., closes below the lower rising trend line it is a strong indication of a reversal/correction of the uptrend. A close below 13,455 will confirm that scenario and selling pressure to increase.
There is divergence on RSI (RSI values has not risen with the higher closing prices on DAX) which is an indication of a weakening of the uptrend. If RSI closes below its lower rising trendline it is a strong indication of a trend reversal/correction
Euro Stoxx 50 is trading in what appears to be a rising channel closing in on resistance at 3,857. To reverse the uptrend a close below 3,694 is needed. If that scenario plays out 3,600 is key support.
Divergence on RSI indicates a weakening of the trend. A close below the loser rising trendline is an indication of a trend reversal or correction
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