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Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - AEX25, CAC40 & BEL20
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
AEX Amsterdam closed below March lows last week, now trying to get back above. If it succeeds further upside to around 666 possibly higher trying to close the Body gap. However, the trend is down, RSI showing bearish sentiment with no divergence indicating AEX will not succeed in closing the gap.
Medium term trend is down confirmed by last week’s close below 653. Despite the divergence on RSI AEX could test both the 200 weekly SMA and the strong support at around 603
CAC40 is bouncing after massive sell off. Strong resistance at 6,086. If CAC closes above that level further upside to around 3,225 could be expected
Medium term trend is down despite the current short term rebound. If CAC takes out this week’s low at 5,855 the key strong support at around 5,755 is very likely to be tested. 200 weekly SMA add to the support strength. Look out for a bearish break of RSI trend line.
BEL20 is testing resistance at 3,759. A close above is likely to extend the rebound to test the falling trend line and possibly move to the 0.382 retracement level at around 3,888.
If the Index fails to close above 3,759 selling pressure could resume pushing the Index to test last weeks low at 3,638.
If last weeks low is taken out March lows at around 3,562 is next key support.
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