Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX, GER40, CAC40, AEX, BEL20, SMI and OMX C25
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Equities market across Europe is opening higher Monday morning putting upwards pressure on the top and reversal scenarios formed last week.
With DAX opening higher Monday morning the top and reversal candle Bearish Engulfing recorded 23rd March is under pressure. If Dax closes a day at 14,540 or higher the reversal scenario has changed and we could see DAX move to test 14,952 resistance .
RSI still below 60 i.e. negative (bearish) sentiment. If RSI closes above 60 sentiment will change to positive (bullish).
Identical picture on the GER40 cfd (future) obviously apart from no Bear Engulfing has been formed 23rd March. However, A break above high on the 23 March at 14,579 is likely move GER40 to test resistance at 14,830 and possibly 15K.
Similar picture on CAC40. If CAC closes above 6,685 a move to resistance at around 6,836 is likely. 200 SMA will offer some resistance however.
If CAC drops back below 6,421 bear trend will resume.
AEX Amsterdam Index displaying identical picture . Strong resistance at 735. Below 718 is likely to resume down trend.
Of all European Equity markets the Belgian main Index BEL20 has rebounded the strongest since early March trough. It seems to be rejected at the 200 daily Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 0.764 Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear move since early January.
If BEL20 closes below 4,092 sellers are likely to regain control sending the Index towards 4K. For further upside a close above 4,187 is needed. If that unfolds previous highs could be tested.
Leading Swiss Index SMI20 is hovering around the 200 daily SMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around 12,205. If buyers cannot hold the market and the Index drops below 12,069 selling pressure could get fuelled sending SMI below 12K.
RSI struggling to break above 60 threshold i.e still in negative sentiment.
Danish OMX C25 has been rejected at the resistance area around 1,800-1,818. The picture is bearish with all moving average declining. If OMX C25 closes below 1,683 selling pressure is likely to intensify.
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