Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Technical Update - CAC40, AEX25, BEL20 and SMI20
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
A relief rally across all European markets is pushing Indices above resistance levels. The good mood might last a couple of more days but the overall trend is still down and the selling pressure could very well resume shortly. Gaps created this morning and fast approaching resistance levels are to watch out for.
CAC40 jumped this morning back above the resistance at 6,421 fast approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at around 6,630. A move higher to test the 0.764 retracement and the neckline from the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern is not unlikely. 200 daily SMA around 6,750 will offer some resistance.
If CAC 40 closes the gap from this morning i.e. dropping below 6,355 bear trend will likely resume.
AEX Amsterdam gapping higher and is currently testing 0.382 retracement and resistance at around 700. Next resistance is at around 714. However, AEX could jump as high as to around 726 which is a big consolidation level. If AEX closes gap from this morning selling pressure could be fueled taking the Index to test lows at 652.
BEL20 has experience a strong rebound. Stronger than other markets. Fast approaching resistance level at around 4,095 which might be too strong to penetrate. If BEL20 over the next 4-6 trading days closes the gap from this morning bear trend will likely resume.
SMI 20 is back above Bear/Bull pivot level at 11,878 and is likely to move to test 0.764 retracement at 12,069 but could spike to test 200 daily SMA before selling pressure will likely return. If the SMI Index over the next 4-6 days closes the gap created this morning selling pressure is to return.
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