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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - US stock Indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 and VIX
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
29th March S&P 500 gapped higher and traded and closed above the strong resistance around 4,591 shortly peeping above 4,600 before profit taking set in with the Index closing the gap.
However, RSI closed above 60 threshold showing positive sentiment. There is no divergence indicating we could see another move above higher past last week’s peak.
Friday S&P 500 closed right on the 100 SMA but above the 200 SMA but the 55 SMA is falling sharply indicating we could see some volatility between 4,400 and 4,600 next few days. If the Index is being pushed below 200 SMA sellers could get a second wind pushing the Index to test support at 4,400.
Nasdaq 100 was rejected at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and hit with selling pressure pushing the Index below the previous resistance at 15,165 and below 200 SMA. However, similar to S&P 500 the RSI for Nasdaq is showing positive sentiment indicating we could see last week’s peak could be taken out.
The picture is a bit murky with 55 and 100 SMA falling i.e. underlying medium trend is bearish but short term trend is up. Expect volatility around the 15K levels. Strong resistance at around 15,566.
Russell 2000 was rejected at the strong resistance level at around 2,130. The small cap Index could be range bound between 2,047 and 2,130 for the next week or two. The short term is up, however, RSI is showing positive sentiment but resistance at 2,130 is strong.
VIX Volatility Index seems to have found support at the lower medium term rising trend line. Worth to keep an eye on; will it bounce or break below.
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