Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
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Technical Update - AEX25, BEL20, CAC40 and SMI20 with Index cfd's
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
AEX25 last week broke above its upper falling trendline to test the key strong resistance at around 750. RSI closed above 60 threshold i.e., now showing positive sentiment indicating higher Index levels.
However, currently AEX is hovering around the 750 resistance and the 200 daily Moving Average. A close above there is resistance at around 763 and 781
If AEX is failing to close above 750 and the 200 DMA a setback should be expected.
If closing below 729 the bullish scenario is demolished
NETH25 cfd Resistance at 755 and 767. Break below 729 downtrend.
BEL20/BELG20 cfd struggling to get upside momentum lagging the other European markets after hitting the 0.786 retracement at around 3,511.
If closing below the GAP area support at 3,398-3,378 downtrend has resumed
If BEL20 breaks above 3,512 a move to strong resistance at around 3,575
If closing below the GAP area support at 3,398-3,378 downtrend has resumed
If BEL20 breaks above 3,512 a move to strong resistance at around 3,575
CAC40/FRA40 cfd in an uptrend but despite closing above 7,100 RSI was rejected at 60 threshold thus still showing negative sentiment. The upper falling trendline and the 100 and 200 DMA’s are adding to the resistance strength at around 7,203.
A close below 6,950 will demolish bullish picture SMI20 is testing gap resistance area but has so far failed to close it. A close above 10,675 is needed, a spike above will not suffice.
A close of the gap i.e., a close above 10,675 is needed for SMI to turn bullish. If that scenario plays out SMI will have potential to 10,900-11K
However, currently it seems like SMI20 is set to be rejected at the gap area thus likely to resume downtrend towards 10K
A break below 10,5198 could fuel a sell-off lower to October lows
SWISS20 cfd resistance at around 10,619 but the gap – 10,675- on SMI20 cash Index is the key. A break below 10,516 down trend will resume Latest Market Insights
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