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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - DAX, AEX25, BEL20 & CAC40 turning bearish. Furhter downside in the cards after minor corrections
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: DAX/GER40 cfd nearing key support
AEX25/NETH25 cfd short-term oversold and could experience a minor bounce but more down side to expected
BEL20/BELG20 cfd correction turned to bearish trend and could drop to June lows
CAC40/FRA40 cfd closing in on key support
DAX is close to testing key support at around 15,482. A break below is likely supported by negative sentiment on the RSI.
DAX could very likely drop to the 200 daily Moving Average
If DAX is closing below 14,456 the medium-term trend has also reverse to bearish. That is likely to put a damper on the Market going in to September that is usually fairly bullish
For DAX to reverse the bearish trend a close above 16,060 is needed.
GER40 cfd is in bearish trend with support at around 15,500. To reverse it a break above 16,062 is needed.
AEX25 went straight through the 748 support, which was actually considered a strong support, and below the 200 Moving Average. AEX25 could touch support at around 732 and a minor bounce over the next couple of days could be seen.
But the trend is down short-term and if AEX cannot close the week above 748 it is also bearish medium-term
AEX could drop further to the support and March lows around 720-710
A close above 748 will put the Index in neutral and range bound.
NETH25 cfd testing support at around 733. The negative RSI sentiment indicates lower levels could be seen on the Index. A short term dip to the 729 level is not unlikely before a rebound.
Strong support at around 710
Strong resistance at around 748
BEL20/BELG20 cfd has cancelled the correction picture and reversed to a confirmed bearish trend. With short-term support around 3,550 followed by a likely minor bounce.
However, the medium-term bearish trend has resumed and BEL20 could take out the June lows around 3,464 towards the end of August going in to September.
A close above 3,680 will demolish the bearish picture short-term and place the Index in neutral position.
To reverse to bullish trend a close above 3,722 is needed
CAC40/ FRA40 cfd After several tries Bears finally succeeded in breaking the support around 7,251 with a lower close yesterday. Next support at around 7,083 which is likely to be tested shortly.
A close below the 7,083 support could fuel further selling down to support around 6,855. However, the 7K is a psychological support level. A minor bounce should expected from there.
A close below 7,051 will confirm bearish trend on medium-term
To demolish and place CAC40 in neutral a close above 7,300.
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