Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
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Technical Update - DAX/GER40 in new all-time high with further upside potential
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: DAX/GER40 is making new all-time highs. Despite RSI divergence DAX is likely to move higher in coming weeks
DAX is at the time of writing making new all-time high. RSI is above 60 threshold but with divergence on both daily and weekly chart. However, trend is up both short-and medium term – and the trend is your friend, until we see a top and reversal pattern unfolding.
For DAX to reverse short- and medium-term uptrend a close below 15,625 is needed.
A daily close below 16,290 can jeopardize the short-term uptrend.
Since we are now in uncharted territory we can use Fibonacci projection to estimate potential uptrend targets. Short-term the 1.382 projection is at 16,600.
Medium-term, 1.382 projection of the 2021-2022 downtrend is suggesting DAX could move to close to 18K.
Again, RSI divergence should be observed. It needs to be cancelled/traded out and that can only be done by either a new higher RSI value or RSI closing below 40. Until then it is a sign of an imbalance in the market, a weakening trend. A warning sign but not a selling indicator
GER40 cfd
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