Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
GER40 cfd is in a downtrend. Dipped down to just above support at 14,400. A test of that support is not unlikely but GER40 is currently back above the 100 daily MA currently sitting at 14,704.
If GER40 closes above 15,158 and above the 55 daily MA the down trend has been neutralized and GER40 could get its second wind . 55 daily Moving Average could be key here. A close above GER40 is back in bullish mode.
A close below 14,400 could see GER40 to collapse down to around 13,695 support
EuroStoxx 50 broke last week out of its rising wedge pattern. Currently holding on above support at 4,024. A close below could fuel a sell off down to around 3,800.
An indication of this scenario to play out could be if Stoxx50 is being pushed back below 4,024 once again – it was be below in early trading this morning.
For Stoxx 50 to reverse the down trend a close above 4,175 is needed
FTSE 100 is at the time of writing below strong support at around 7,296. A close below and FTSE 100 is likely to test the next minor support at around 7,076. However, a close back above 7,300 could trigger a minor rebound 7,500.
A close above 7,511 could give way to a short uptrend to around 7,750.
UK100 cfd is at the time of writing trading above key support at around 7,293 after dipping down to the 0.681 retracement of the September to February uptrend at 7,216. A close above 7,300 could fuel a minor rebound to around 7,500. . But trend is down and Uk100 needs to close above 7,511 to build a short-term uptrend that could take it to around 7,750.
FTSE 250 has reached it Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pot4ential target at around 18,500 – and then some. Currently trading below key support at around 18,500 there is support at around 17,822 and at around 17,033. A close above 18,920 could fuel a short sweet rally to 19,000-19,500.
UK250MID cfd opened below key support at round 18,408. Trend is down but a close above 18,408 could give energy to for bueyrs to lift the UK250MID higher. A close above 18,907 could extend a rebound to around 19,350. Support at around 17,722 and 17K
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