Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: The strong bounce and uptrends in EuroStoxx 50 / EU50 and DAX / GER40 seems a bit streched. Nearing strong resistance levels correction should be expected
EuroStoxx50 testing resistance at around 4,340. A close above is likely to push the Index to strong resistance around 4,684-4,402.
However, the uptrend is a bit stretched and a correction should be expected before next move higher The RSI is nearing 70 and flattening suggesting a correction.
However, the bullish trend seems strong and there is strong support at around 4,234 . The 100 and 200 DMA’s are adding to the support.
A close below 4,234 will demolish the bullish picture
EU50 cfd is testing resistance at around 4,348. A minor correction should be expected. Strong support at around 4,234.
RSI showing positive sentiment with no divergence strong indicating uptrend is to continue towards resistance at around 4,400
DAX could be testing 16K shortly but a correction is looming. Uptrend is a bit stretched after strong bounce off lows.
A correction that could take DAX down to around the 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages currently around 15,600.
However, RSI is indicating higher levels and if DAX is closing above 16,000 a push higher to around the July peak at around 16,528 would be in the cards
A close below 15,575 will demolish the bullish pictureGER40 cfd. Bounce and uptrend has been strong but now seems a bit stretched. A correction within a couple of days could be seen. Strong resistance at around 16,046.
Bullish picture will be demolished by a close below 15,572
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