Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - Hang Seng & China 50 finding support
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Hang Seng Index selling pressure seems to be running out of steam just above the support at around 18,814. The support could be tested however as the trend is still down. But RSI is showing divergence indicating an exhaustion of the downtrend.
A rebound could struggle to get traction however. There is strong overhead resistance at the lower Cloud span at 19,767 and at 19,900.
However, if the falling trendline is broken and Hang Seng closes above 19,900 the Index could experience a rally up to around 21K . A close above 21,000 will confirm uptrend.
The HK50 cfd has been range bound in a tight range the past 6 trading days testing strong support at 19,031. A close below 19K is likely to extend the downtrend to 18,000-17,693.
A close above the upper falling trendline could fuel a rally to the 55 daily MA around 20,800. A close above 21,015 will confirm new uptrend
FTSE China A50 future is almost hugging the lower falling trendline in the falling channel like pattern just above key support at around 12,787.
A close below 12,787 could fuel a sell-off down to 12K area with some support at round 12,415.
If A50 find buyers the upper falling trendline could be tested but for A50 to reverse this down trend the minimum requirement is a close above. The 55 daily MA will provide some resistance meaning it could be a struggle for A50 to establish an uptrend.
A close above 13,651 will confirm uptrend
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