Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - ASX 200, Hang Seng & China A50
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: ASX200 eyeing all-time highs in a strong uptrend
Hang Seng Index uptrend stretched but could continue to 22,500
China A50 broke key resistance and has more room to rise
The S&P ASX 200 Index is close to test December peak at 7,375. It is likely to break above and continue its uptrend to strong resistance around 7,592-7,625 possibly shooting up to test all-time highs at 7,632
RSI is above 60 supporting the uptrend and the picture of higher Index levels. To reverse this strong uptrend a close below 6,900 is needed.
Hang Seng Index
The uptrend in the Hang Seng Index is more and more stretched. But there is still room up to resistance at around 22,500 where we are likely to see a correction. However, a correction is not likely to break below the lower rising trendline. But if Hang Seng does close below its lower rising trendline, it could result in a larger correction. A correction down to around 20K would not be unlikely. However, the uptrend its intact as long as Hang Seng does not close below 19,303.
Medium-term the uptrend has been further confirmed by RSI closing above 60 two weeks ago.
FTSE China A50 future broke above resistance at 13,502 to shoot higher. And there could be more upside. RSI above and no divergence indicates higher levels for the A50.
No strong resistance until around 14,700-15,000. In that range there is 200 weekly SMA, 0.382 retracement of the entire 2021-2022 downtrend and resistance at 15,000.
RSI divergence: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend
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