Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: LVMH share price has been in decline for the past couple of months. Now testing strong support and medium-term rising trend line.
Can it bounce back or will LVMH continue its slide lower towards 600?
LVMH has been trading in a falling channel for the past couple of months and reached the strong support at around 670.10 yesterday.
LVMH is in a down trend on both daily and weekly chart i.e., on short- and medium-term, testing the medium-term rising trend line - see weekly chart.
However, short-term there is RSI divergence indicating this could be the final exhaustive bearish move and a correction could be seen. A short-term bounce to the upper falling trend on the daily time period is in the cards.
However, if LVMH if Bears (sellers) manage to keep in control pushing the stock price to close below 670 it could fuel another wave of heavy selling down to around 600 going into the end of the year.
For LVMH to reverse to uptrend short-term a close above the upper falling trendline and above 734.50 is needed. A close above 734.50 could trigger further buying up to around 774.70
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