Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Orsted. Possible trend exhaustion but no signs of a reversal
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Orsted is continuing its downtrend and has now lost 80% since its 2021 peak.
Technically, the downtrend is showing signs of exhaustion but could continue lower closing in on its all time low. A trend reversal is currently not in the cards and catching a falling knife can become costly
Orsted is trading approx. 20% lower after earnings report. Share price is back to 2016 levels and closing in on all-time lows (220 in 2016).
However, at the time of writing Orsted is finding buyers (bargain hunters) around the support at around 276. Could this be the last exhaustive move lower?
Possibly but not at all a given. Far from!
Short-term, on daily time period, there is divergence on RSI which is an indication of a trend exhaustion.
However, RSI is still showing negative sentiment and if RSI is closing below its lower rising trendline and below the dashed horizontal line Orsted is likely to move closer to all-time lows.
If that scenario plays out, where RSI is closing lower Orsted could drop lower in coming
Medium-term – weekly chart – RSI is at an extreme around 20 i.e. oversold level, but there is no RSI divergence. It should be noted however, there does not need to be divergence for the instrument price to reverse.
Next few days and week’s could prove to be decisive for Orsted, is there more bad news coming from the company.
One should remember that when the bad news flow is, well flowing like it have been doing for quite some time now, it takes a lot of good news to turn the tide. And currently it will take a lot of good news to reverse the down trend.
Orsted share price is likely to be depressed for quit some time
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