Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 in bearish trends. Could be in for a rough October
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: In this analysis:
S&P 500 and US500 cfd
Nasdaq 100 and USNAS100 cfd
S&P 500 is continuing its move towards 4,200 and the Shoulder-Head- Shoulder potential target level.
The two vertical arrows are indicating the potential distance S&P can move after is has broken below the Neckline.
If S&P 500 does travel the indicated distance there is potential down to 4,050. However, often the distance is cut short to around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at around 4,155 which is very close to the 200 Moving Average and the upper range of the Consolidation area
The 200 daily Moving Average sits currently just above the 0.618 Fibo level will add some support.
RSI is below the 40 threshold adding to the bearish outlook.
To demolish the SHS pattern a close above 4,540 is needed.
US500 cfd: took out 4,266 minor support only to bounce from the 200 Moving Average and 4,200.
The bounce can continue a bit higher but the trend is down. If US500 takes out 4,200 it could fuel a sell-off down to 4,100-4,050
A closed above 4,335 will short-term demolish the bearish picture
Nasdaq 100 has been rejected at the 100 Moving Average and failing to close the break-away gap.
RSI, which has been indicating negative sentiment since mid-August, is below the 40 threshold adding to the bearish outlook strongly indicating Nasdaq will slide lower in coming weeks.
Next support at around 14,254 but Nasdaq could be hit with heavy selling dropping to around 14,590. 200 daily Moving Average will offer some support
To reverse the bearish trend a close above 15,245 is needed. A close of the gap would be first indication of that scenario to play out USNAS100 cfd bouncing somewhat after another day of selling. The 100 Moving Average seems to act as a resistance.
RSI is en negative sentiment suggesting lower levels are likely.
Support at 14,250 and at around 13,568
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