Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Uptrends likely to have exhausted for Nasdaq 100, SP 500 and Dow Jones Indices
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
- Top and reversal patterns, along with technical indicators, are strongly indicating that the uptrends in Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones have come to an end, at least in the short term, suggesting an impending correction
- Nasdaq 100 Bear Engulfing pattern was not cancelled and sellers now seem to be in control. Key support at 17,808 could be tested shortly.
USNAS100 CFD support at 17,780
- S&P 500 rejected twice at 5,261. Key support at 5,057
US500 CFD support at 5,048
- Dow Jones Minor double top confirmed. Short-term downside potential to 38,457.
US30 CFD support at 38,450
Nasdaq 100
As highlighted in previous technical updates, the Nasdaq 100 formed a bearish engulfing top and reversal pattern on 8th March. This pattern has not been cancelled and remains in play, despite the fact that the reversal has not yet unfolded.
RSI has been signaling trend exhaustion by showing divergence for some time, and with the recent gap lower, the reversal might now be commencing.
A test of key strong support at around 17,808 is likely. A daily close below this level could lead to further selling, potentially down to around 17,478.
For the Nasdaq 100 to negate the top and reversal pattern, a daily close above 18,417 is required. If that scenario plays out, although it appears unlikely, there is short-term upside potential to 18,812, which corresponds to the 1.618 projection of the sideways trading range observed over the past few weeks.
USNAS100 CFD levels: Key strong support at around 17,780. Could be tested shortly. A break below could push USNAS100 lower to 17,315-17,160
To resume uptrend a close above 18,417 is needed The S&P 500 has been rejected at its previous peak of 5,261 twice. RSI has been signaling uptrend exhaustion for quite some time.
With the index closing yesterday below its lower rising trendline, a correction scenario is likely to unfold.
Key strong support at around 5,057 could be tested. A daily close below this level is likely to fuel a sell-off down to around 4,845, which is close to the 0.382 retracement of the uptrend since October 2023 at 3,819.
To negate this top and reversal scenario, a daily close above 5,261 is necessary. If that occurs, the S&P 500 could push higher to around 5,483
US500 CFD levels: Currently trading below lower rising trendline. Key strong support at 5,048. Minor support at 5,148.
Strong support at around 4,953-4,919 and 4,841.
A close above 5,277 uptrend is to be extended with potential to around 5,480
The Dow Jones Industrial Index has formed a short-term, minor double-top pattern. With the close yesterday below 39,277, the top and reversal pattern is confirmed, with potential to test key support at around 38,457. A close below that level is likely to fuel a sell-off down to support at around 37,778.
To negate this reversal pattern and resume the uptrend, a close above 39,889 is necessary.
US30 CFD levels: Support at 38,450 and 37,778. A daily close above 39,988 will demolish the top and reversal pattern.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)