Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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DAX, S&P500, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225. The trend is your friend
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
DAX is rising in a fairly narrow channel making new all-time highs almost daily.
RSI is not showing divergence indicating we are likely to see higher levels in coming days and possibly weeks.
If support at 15.985 (15.984 on the GER40 CFD – future) is broken we could see a bearish break out of the lower rising trend line initiating a correction down to around 15.750-15.650.
S&P500 got rejected at the medium term rising resistance line (dark blue). The index seems to be trading in a steep rising channel that could lead to new all-time highs. Yesterday’s session was close to retest highs. Minor support at around 4.622 needs to hold to support uptrend scenario. Support is at around 4.551.
Nasdaq 100 broke out of its rising channel with what seem to be just a minor correction. The Index seems to have found support at around the 16K mark so if it does not close below 15.905 the uptrend seems to be intact and we could see a push for higher levels in coming days. No divergence on RSI is supporting the scenario of a likely new all- time high.
JP225 (Nikkei225) is as quite different picture. The index has been in a short term uptrend past 5 weeks forming what looks like an Ascending triangle with strong resistance at around 19.960. If breaking above we could see JP225 test 31K level.
There seem to be strong support at around 29K; November low and 200 Simple Moving Average. A close below November low at around 28.968 the current uptrend scenario could be reversed.
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