Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Theme basket review: 3D Printing expands on good start to 2022
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: The 3D Printing theme basket is one of the worst performing baskets over the past year, but this year 3D printing companies are feeling the love from investors with the basket up 2%. Based on our annual review of the theme basket we are expanding the basket from 16 to 21 companies which makes the basket more diversified and interesting. The industry is back into positive revenue growth but profitability is still lacking, but sell-side analysts are seeing through this remaining bullish on the industry.
Is the potential finally being released?
In July 2021, we launched our 3D Printing theme, or additive manufacturing as it is also called, and the key backdrop for the theme is the great potential for more efficient and lightweight manufacturing coupled with software simulations. But the industry has suffered from many false starts since it was commercialized back in the late 1980s.
This year’s performance is as of yesterday’s close +1-9% making our 3D Printing theme basket the fourth best performing basket. However, the past year has seen a 51.4% decline making it the third worst performing basket only surpassed by cannabis (-62.3%) and bubble stocks (-51.6%). The industry is optimistic on 2022, and the pandemic has probably a welcoming tailwind for the industry as global supply chain issues could accelerate more domestic production in the developed world which requires efficient and automated processes to be viable.
The smallest theme is growing up
It was our smallest theme when we launched containing only 16 companies. But in this year’s review we are adding six companies and removing one.
Added:
- Renishaw
- Xometry
- Velo3D
- Fathom Digital Manufacturing
- Nano Dimension
- Shapeways
Removed:
- ExOne (acquired by Desktop Metal which is in the theme basket)
The net expansion means that the basket now has 21 stocks with a combined market value of $26.1bn, the smallest theme measured on market value up from $22.6bn when we launched the 3D Printing basket. Since July 2021, the median sales growth has improved from -13.3% to 7.3% as industrial demand has improved, but the overall industry is still not profitable with a median ROIC of -7.7%. Sell-side analysts covering the stocks are generally very positive with a 41% spread (median) from current prices to price targets.
| Name | Mkt Cap (USD mn.) | Sales growth (%) | ROIC (%) | Diff to PT (%) | 5yr return |
| Renishaw PLC | 4,867 | 25.6 | 22.5 | 9.5 | 75.1 |
| Allegheny Technologies Inc | 3,036 | -6.1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 13.5 |
| 3D Systems Corp | 2,435 | 16.4 | -3.8 | 24.6 | 11.2 |
| Xometry Inc | 2,241 | 76.3 | -48.9 | 42.0 | NA |
| Stratasys Ltd | 1,724 | 8.2 | -7.7 | 65.8 | 23.9 |
| Proto Labs Inc | 1,536 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 6.0 | -6.3 |
| Carpenter Technology Corp | 1,514 | -9.7 | -7.2 | 25.7 | -16.6 |
| Velo3D Inc | 1,376 | NA | NA | 55.3 | NA |
| Desktop Metal Inc | 1,313 | 1,121.2 | -38.2 | 129.4 | NA |
| Materialise NV | 1,174 | -13.3 | -1.7 | 53.8 | 131.9 |
| Fathom Digital Manufacturing C | 1,143 | NA | NA | 40.7 | NA |
| FARO Technologies Inc | 1,005 | 5.0 | -2.5 | 35.8 | 49.0 |
| Nano Dimension Ltd | 975 | 44.9 | -8.0 | 155.1 | -94.3 |
| SGL Carbon SE | 870 | 4.4 | -8.5 | 36.7 | -24.2 |
| SLM Solutions Group AG | 396 | 8.8 | -16.3 | 68.2 | -59.6 |
| Shapeways Holdings Inc | 179 | NA | -3.9 | 153.4 | NA |
| Prodways Group SA | 167 | 2.6 | -4.1 | 40.8 | NA |
| Meatech 3D Ltd | 74 | NA | -211.9 | NA | NA |
| voxeljet AG | 48 | NA | -19.5 | 113.2 | -56.4 |
| Titomic Ltd | 36 | -1.1 | -96.0 | NA | NA |
| Amaero International Ltd | 35 | 332.4 | -58.0 | NA | NA |
| Aggregate / median | 26,143 | 7.3 | -7.7 | 41.4 | 2.5 |
Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)