Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Themes on the move: European construction industry under pressure
Anders Nysteen
Senior Quantitative Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: The construction industry in Europe took a hit last week due to the hawkish surprise from ECB, and the theme was the biggest mover in our weekly thematic ETF screener.
In our weekly publication series we monitor trends in a pool of around 40 equity themes via ETFs and equity indices. Every week we focus on one themes which have moved the most in the previous week relative to its usual trading pattern and volatility, and we provide an unbiased sample of companies within the theme. This week the we describe the theme which has made the largest deviation from the usual trading pattern.
On Thursday the European Central Bank gave a hawkish outlook by warning of more rate hikes as “the Governing Council judges that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace”. Market participants were caught by surprise which resulted in a broad decline in across European equity markets. The construction industry was also affected significantly, as increasing yields as well as higher recession risk is a double whammy for the industry. The construction and materials theme was the theme which moved the most from its regular pattern of all the themes we track, as it faced a big weekly decline.
2023 may turn out to be a tough year for the construction industry if the high inflation persists, and companies will have to keep a strict eye on how their backlogs will be impacted by a potential economic slowdown. With the tight labour market, companies may also have to increase the employee salaries further to retain their current work force. On the other hand, construction companies are to a larger extend leveraging automatized processes and robots to reduce costs in the long run, such as 3d-printing of larger components, as well as moving bigger robots onsite for tasks such as site grading, rebar tying and bricklaying. And if inflation turns out to come down faster than the market expects, this will likely boost the construction industry significantly.
The list below illustrates 10 different companies within the theme. They are spanning a broad area of the theme and is intended as an inspirational list only:
How the list was created: Each theme consists of a number of companies from the ETFs and indices within the given theme. The list above is created by sampling 10 different companies from the theme, making sure that the companies have a low mutual correlation within the theme, such that they span a broad part of the overall theme. Note that this is based on historical performance which is not an indicator for future returns. The list is for inspirational purpose only and should not be considered as trade recommendations in any way.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)