Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Senior Investment Editor
Dear reader,
A week of yet more AI exuberance, political turmoil and even a rate cut is drawing to it’s close.
Nvidia started the week by becoming the most valuable company in the world and boosting the S&P500 to new record highs as the breadth of the US equity markets continues to contract while raising concerns among some technical analysts. Meanwhile, in Europe, the effects of the snap election called by President Macron has put pressure on French government bonds and turned the CAC 40 into the worst performing stock index of 2024 and in Switzerland the SNB went ahead and cut interest rates by 0.25%. In Japan, currency intervention moves ever closer as the Yen weaken above 159 vs the US dollar.
Looking ahead
There is a lot of macro data points to watch for next week which can help the markets predict the timing of future rate cuts. Inflation data from Japan and France and Consumer Confidence in the US are among the most interesting.
While in the equity markets, earnings releases from Micron, Nike and Fed-Ex will be closely watched with shares in Micron up more than 60% year-to-date and Fed-Ex’s performance serving as a proxy for general business activity within the economy.
Stay ahead by visiting our inspiration pages for insights to guide your next investment or keep track of financial events in our calendar.
We wish you a successful week in the financial markets and beyond.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)