Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: Speculators continue to show hesitancy in getting on board the current dollar rally. Despite seeing the Dollar Index hitting a three-year high the dollar long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index stayed well below last years peak.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
Lukewarm best described speculators reaction to the continued dollar rally in the week to February 18. While buying of the Greenback extended into a fifth week the pace of long accumulation, considering the DXY hitting a three-year high, remained relatively slow. The combined long against ten IMM currency futures and the Dollar Index rose by $2.1 billion to $13.6, a two months high, but still well below the April 2019 peak at $38 billion.
The selling was, with the exception of Sterling, broad-based but not particularly aggressive. This approach was perhaps already vindicated Friday when a surprisingly weak U.S. Services PMI helped send the dollar sharply lower.
The biggest short – by far – was held in the euro at $12.4 billion equivalent. It was followed by the Japanese yen at $3.1 billion and the Aussie dollar at $2.5 billion. The reaction to the breakout in USDJPY above the downtrend from 2015 occurred on Wednesday, the day after this reporting week ended.
Leveraged funds reduced their net-short in U.S. 10-year Note futures by 28k lots to 643k lots, an 18-month low.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)