Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - AUDEUR, AUDJPY, AUDNZD and AUDUSD.
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Most Aussie Dollar pairs trying to find direction testing ranges. AUDJPY resuming uptrend
AUDEUR seems range bound between 0.6580 and 0.6775. Break out needed for direction. Indicators do not give much clue about likely direction; 55 MSA is declining but 100 SMA is rising. RSI fluctuates between 40 and 60.
AUDJPY tested rising trend line a few times last week but managed to close above every time. There is no divergence on RSI indicating peak around 96.90 is likely to be tested and taken out with a new high.
A break below 90.90 will reverse that scenario.
AUDNZD is trying to get back above the rising trend line it broke below Friday. Almost testing the support at around 1.0920. A close below support will confirm down trend. That scenario is likely to play out if RSI closes below 40.
If on the other hand AUDNZD closes back above the trend line we could see a move back to around 1.11.
AUDUSD bounced off support at around 0.6850 retracing before sellers took back control. RSI below 40 no divergence indicating AUDUSD is likely to break the support. IF AUDUSD breaks below there is support at around 0.6775. a break below the falling trend line on the weekly chart is likely to accelerate the down trend.
To reverse that scenario a break above 0.7070 is needed for a move to 0.7120 possibly 0.7180.
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