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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
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Technical Update - AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD & XAGUSD
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
AUDUSD is hovering around 0.764 Fibonacci retracement at around 0.717. There is overhead resistance in the form of 55, 100 and 200 SMA’s clustering around 0.7250 and all slightly declining. Strong and key resistance at around 0.7267
EURUSD rebound could run out of steam if RSI fails to close above 60 threshold and fails to break above falling trend line. IF EURUSD takes out 1.0790 we could see a test of 1.0936. A break below 1.0640 bear trend is likely to resume.
GBPUSD is hovering around key resistance at 1.2638. A bit of a tug of war between Bulls and Bears. The Bear Engulfing candle Monday indicates a top and reversal. Despite divergence on RSI the indicator is still showing negative sentiment and seems to struggle to move into positive territory above 60.
For further upside a break above 1.2670 is needed supported by RSI above 60. However, if that scenario plays out, the falling trend line and 55 SMA provides some overhead resistance.
USDJPY has bounced off from the support level at around 126.95. Sellers couldn’t push the pair below for real and uptrend seems to have resumed. Despite showing divergence RSI has broken its falling trend line and if it closes above, it will indicate previous peak around 131.35 is to be tested.
For sellers to take control a move below 126.35 is needed.
XAUUSD has been rejected at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and bears seems to regain control pushing Gold Spot back below 200 SMA.
RSI supports the bearish picture and XAUUSD needs to break above 1,870 to reverse that. May lows around 1,786 is likely to be tested.
XAGUSD bounce couldn’t make it till the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement before sellers have taken back control. RSI (at the time of writing) back below 40 with no divergence strongly indicates May lows are to be tested. To reverse that scenario a move above 22.45 is needed. Strong resistance at around 23.28
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