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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - GBPUSD testing key pivot at 1.14. Make or break? EURUSD closing in on parity once again. Trend change?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
GBPUSD has bounced strongly off all-time lows to longer term pivot level at 1.14. Is the rebound exhausted or is there more upside demolishing longer term view?
EURUSD close to testing parity once again. A possible spike above could be the exhaustion of the rebound
GBPUSD has spiked above the key resistance at 1.14 and touched the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement at 1.1430 of the September sell-off. If GBPUSD fails to close above 1.1430 the bounced is likely to have exhausted.
RSI is still bearish (until it closes above 60) and there was no divergence at the trough last week.
If sellers regain control and push GBPUSD below 1.10 lows at 1.03 is likely to be tested.
A daily close above 1.1432 GBPUSD could extend its rebound to strong resistance at around 1.1740. If that plays out the longer-term scenario outlined in previous GBP analysis could be in jeopardy: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/ta-gbpusd-multi-decade-cycles-30092022
By the way, regarding the 96 months cycle lengths describe in the analysis; 96 and 8 (years) are Fibonacci numbers.
EURUSD has rebound strongly moving close to parity. Fibo retracement of the latest down move at 0.9945 is being tested. However, EURUSD could test parity, possible spiking to the 55 SMA and medium-term falling (black) trendline.
RSI is still bearish (until it closes above 60) and there was no divergence at the trough last week still supporting the picture of this just being a short-term rebound.
If buyers run out of steam and EURUSD slides back below 0.9735 selling pressure is likely to resume.
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