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Technical Update - EURNOK breaking rising trendline. EURSEK waiting for break-out. NOKSEK testing 1.00
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: EURNOK bull trend could have come to an end after breaking rising trendline
EURSEK range bound. Break out needed for direction
NOKSEK strong bounce rejected at 1.00. Could have another go
EURNOK broke Friday below medium-term rising trendline. The uptrend seems to be over. That will be confirmed if EURNOK closes below 11.50.
There is support at around 11.38 and 11.20
RSI has been showing divergence on both daily and weekly chart indicating exhaustion of the uptrend. Friday daily RSI closed below 40 i.e., in negative sentiment suggesting lower EURNOK levels.
For EURNOK to resume bullish trend a close above 11.90 is needed. First indication of this scenario to play out would be a close back above lower rising trendline EURSEK uptrend is stalling with RSI divergence short-term range-bound trading between 11.50 and 11.70.
Break out direction will suggest whether EURSEK will experience a larger correction or uptrend will resume. Some support at around 11.43
A break below 11.50 could lead to a break of the medium-term lower rising trendline – weekly chart.
A close below the rising trendline could lead to a larger correction. Key support at around 11.20.
A close above 11.70 the uptrend is likely to be extended to test 12.00 thereby a new all time high
NOKSEK has bounced from support at around 0.95 to test resistance at around 1.00. A close above NOKSEK could extend uptrend to the 1.382 projection (daily chart) at 1.0322 spiking above 200 daily Moving Average.
However, a short-term setback should be expected, possibly down to around 0.99 before next attempt at 1.00 resistance. Daily RSI is positive suggesting higher NOKSEK levels.
Medium-term a close above 1.00 could see NOKSEK to around 1.05.
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