Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - EURNOK & EURSEK uptrends sending exhaustion signals
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: EURNOK could be drawing a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern in an exhausting move with downside potential below 11.00
EURSEK indicators suggesting uptrend exhaustion. Confirmation is needed. 11.50 is likely to be key support
EURNOK bounced from just above the 100 daily Moving Average and support at around 11.38 and is now testing the medium-term rising trendline. At first attempt of getting back above the trendline EURNOK has been rejected.
Sentiment is still down as illustrated by RSI and needs to close above 60 threshold to change that.
Is EURNOK forming a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern with a downwards sloping Neckline?
If EURNOK slides back to close below last week’s low at around 11.40 we can calculate the potential downwards price target to around 10.80. That potential target level is also close to the 0.618 retracement of the November 2022 – May 2023 uptrend (see weekly chart)
There is however, strong support at around 11.20.
The RSI divergence on weekly chart indicates uptrend exhaustion.
If EURNOK manages to close above the rising trendline previous peak at around 12.07 could be tested thereby demolishing the SHS pattern.
A move above 12.07 is likely to sent EURNOK towards all-time high levels around 13.00
EURSEK uptrend, which has recorded an all-time high, is in exhaustion mode as indicated by RSI divergence on both daily and weekly chart.
If EURSEK breaks below its short-term rising trendline it could be first indication of a larger correction. A close below 11.50 will confirm that scenario that could take EURSEK down toa around 11.20 i.e., the 0.382 retracement and support.
However, the trend is still up – a close below 11.50 will change that – and if EURSEK trades above 11.80 the RSI divergence is likely to be cancelled with a new all-time high in EURSEK to follow.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)