Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Correction in EURUSD & Dollar Index. Key levels to be tested
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: EURUSD and the Dollar Index have both retraced 0.382. Dollar Index trading around the strong resistance at 100.68
A 0.618 Fibonacci correction should not be ruled out
EURUSD correction is unfolding and is close to test the 0.382 retracement at around 1.1107. A break below below 1.11 could fuel further selling pressure down to the 0.618 retracement at around 1.10 before the uptrend is likely to resume.
If EURUSD drops to close below 1.0830 the uptrend both short- and medium-term has been reversed.
After heavy selling last week the Dollar Index Future is rebounding and is at the time of writing breaking back above strong resistance at around 100.68 to the 0.382 retracement at 100.77.
A correction to the 0.618 retracement at around 101.73 is not unlikely and will not jeopardize the medium-term bearish picture. A close above 103.30 is needed for that.
There is strong resistance at around 102.50. All daily Moving Averages are declining underlining the underlying bearish sentiment.
RSI still showing negative sentiment and needs to close above 60 to reverse that
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