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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - EURUSD and GBPUSD seem to find some support but selling pressure likely to return
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
EURUSD has dipped lower to the 1.764 projection of the early April bullish correction at 1.0602.
Short-term the sell-off seen since 10th April seems overdone. If EURUSD gets a positive close to the day a correction up to the 0.382 retracement at 1.0710 could unfold
A break! Below todays low at 1.0602 the downtrend is to be extended down to the 2.00 projection at 1.0564
The overall trend short- and medium-term is bearish
Looking at the weekly chart EURUSD has broken bearish out of the triangle like pattern and is currently finding some support at the 200 weekly Moving Average.
Weekly RSI is exhibiting negative sentiment suggesting lower EURUSD levels. Further selling in coming weeks to the lower part of the triangle at around 1.0448 is in the cards
To reverse this trend a close above 1.0885 is required!
GBPUSD has dipped down to the 1.764 projection of the early April bullish correction and support at 1.2410.
Short-term a bounce and minor correction is likely to unfold. A correction that could take GBPUSD to the 0.382 retracement at 1.2523 before downtrend is likely resuming
If GBPUSD is breaking ! below today’s low at 1.2408 GBPUSD is likely to test the support at t 1.2375
A daily close below 1.2375 is likely leading to further selling down to support at around 1.2222
A closed above 1.2710 is required to reverse the trend
Medium-term weekly chart GBPUSD has broken below key support at around 1.25 thus in a bearish trend
However, the strength indicator RSI is still exhibiting positive sentiment and needs to close below 40 to move into negative. If it does GBPUSD could drop further to around 1.2220
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