Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Technical Update - Bullish trends in JPY pairs are getting more and more ripe for corrections. USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & AUDJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Uptrends in JPY pairs are quite stretched and are ripe for corrections. Corrections that are likely to be limited however, with the medium-term trends pointing to higher levels
USDJPY key resistance at 145.30. Keep an eye on rising trendline
EURJPY rejected at 158. RSI divergence warning about a correction
GBPJPY. RSI divergence warning about a correction but buyers keep pushing GBPJPY higher. For how long?
AUDJPY correction seems to be unfolding. Key support at 95.15
USDJPY a correction seems increasingly likely to unfold, short-term. However, resistance at around 145.30 could be tested before a correction is unfolding. A close above 145.30 could result in the uptrend extending to 146.60 before a correction which is the 0.786 retracement – see weekly chart.
If USDJPY breaks below lower rising trendline, key support at 142.25. A close below 142.25 could lead to a larger correction/sell-off down to 139.18 (0.382 retracement) but could dip down to strong support at around 138.80
Weekly chart suggests this is merely just going to be a correction and not a trend change. Weekly RSI is positive without divergence indicating likely new higher USDJPY levels and no strong resistance . A move to the 0.786 retracement at 146.60 should be seen.
However, medium- to longer term 2022 peak just below 152 could be challenged
EURJPY seems to be rejected at 158 and is about to unfold a correction. RSI divergence indicates a weakening of the uptrend short-term further adding to the correction scenario.
A correction down to support at around 154.40 could be seen but a dip down to the lower rising trendline should be expected.
If EURJPY closes below 154.40 a sell-off down to 0.618 retracement at 152.20 could be seen.
For EURJPY to extend the uptrend a closed above 158 is needed supported by RSI closing above its falling trendline
Medium- to longer term EURJPY is in an uptrend with no strong resistance until 169-170.
Weekly RSI showing no divergence supporting higher EURJPY levels. That uptrend will. However be in jeopardy if EURJPY drops to close below strong support at around 150.75
GBPJPY. RSI divergence is warning of a correction. A correction down to test lower rising trendline. If closing below it could drop to strong support at around 174.20.
Short-term support at 179.90 is key. A close below would confirm correction is unfolding.
However, a top and reversal indicator is not yet in place and GBPJPY could continue higher before a correction occurs. A daily close above 184.00 is likely to extend the uptrend short-term before a correction.
The medium-term uptrend is strong without RSI divergence suggesting a correction is likely to be limited. There is room up to resistance at around 188-189.
AUDJPY correction is unfolding and can slide down to the 0.382 retracement at around 93.23. The correction scenario is confirmed if AUDJPY is closing below 95.15. A correction could then be seen down to the lower rising trendline and support at around 93.20
However, with no daily RSI divergence uptrend is likely to resume and AUDJPY could have another go at the strong resistnace at around 97.50.
A close above 97.70 could lead to the medium-term uptrend to be extended to 103-104 resistance area (back from 2013 and 2008)
To reverse the uptrend a close below 172.50 is needed.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)