Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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NY Open: 'To vote or not to vote...'
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: The greenback gained against the G10 majors, thanks in large part to the woes of sterling, which developed the attributes of a lead balloon as the Brexit crises became deeper still.
GBPUSD traded like the weight of the Brexit vote was on its shoulders. It was. Traders feared that Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan would be on the losing end of the parliamentary vote, scheduled for Tuesday. May feared likewise. She cancelled it. GBPUSD dropped from an opening level of 1.2715 to 1.2612 but bounced to 1.2635 by 14:00 GMT.
The drop in sterling since New York opened, contributed to US dollar gains against the G-10 majors. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the JOLTS survey showed job openings were little changed at 7.1 million. EURUSD traded in a 1.1394-1.1420 range since the open but prices are unchanged as of 14:00 GMT. Traders are looking ahead to Wednesday’s US inflation data and Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting for direction.
USDCAD accelerated higher as WTI oil prices retraced the post-Opec production cut bump. The Canadian dollar is also suffering from concerns that the Bank of Canada is confused following last week’s dovish turn. Traders have already forgotten about the 94,000 new jobs reported in Friday’s stellar Canadian employment report.
Wall Street is in the red again. Increasing US/China trade tensions sparked by the Huawei CFO arrest, the retreat in oil prices and bad news for Apple (APPL: Nasdaq) is weighing on sentiment. AAPL is down 2.11% as of 14:00 GMT following reports that China banned the company from selling older phone models in the country. President Trump’s China tariffs got another result. GoPro (Gpro: Nasdaq) announced that it was moving all US-bound production out of China.
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