Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: Bank of Japan’s pivot away from negative rates is becoming a baseline view ahead of Tuesday’s announcement, but gains in the Japanese yen could remain limited by dovish commentary and risks of a hawkish surprise by the Fed the next day. Two-way risks for the dollar this week as markets anticipate a hawkish shift in dot plot, but CHF sees downside risks as SNB can surprise with a rate cut or stronger FX language. GBP also has a lot at stake this week with BOE meeting vote split and Nvidia-driven equity momentum in focus.
Other recent Macro/FX articles:
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19 Feb: Macro & FX Podcast: How the debate about the US economy has shifted
19 Feb: Weekly FX Chartbook: Dollar rally looking stretched, bullish signals for NZD
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14 Feb: Sticky US inflation could make dollar strength more durable
13 Feb: Weekly FX Chartbook: US and UK disinflation story in focus, watch for ECB split widening
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1 Feb: FOMC out, BOE and NFP next – will the hawkish waves continue?
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