Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Chart of the Week: USDCNH
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.
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Market tensions are increasing this morning following Trump’s threat to use tariffs to “punish” China for the way it handled the coronavirus outbreak. Over the past two days, the blame game between Washington and Beijing has sharply intensified. China blasted the United States on coronavirus response while some U.S. officials spread rumors of Wuhan lab COVID-19 origination. As a result, the yuan offshore (CNH), which is the ultimate barometer for US-China trade war, is on high alert again. It is approaching a key technical resistance at 7.15. That level has become a line in the sand for investors all around the world and, if broken, it could signal that China is ready to let go further its currency which would have very negative implications for risk assets. A break would mean more contentious trade war on the top of the preexisting health and economic crisis and would induce a big move in the dollar and put negative pressure on equities and emerging market assets. At this time of the year, the classic rhyming investment adage argues you should sell before the summer. A further weakening in the Chinese yuan might finally be the reason for a market sell-off.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
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After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
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As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
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Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
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Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
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Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
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Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
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Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
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